Super Bowl X Mvp

Kerry J. Byrne: In defense of passer rating

Venerable old passer rating is under siege in the explosive Ardennes Forest of football analysis. Serious fans should race to its defense and dig a foxhole alongside their statistical Band of Brothers, the Cold, Hard Football Facts .

Our heroic paratroopers of pigskin descended on the battlefield in 2004 and have proved over the years that passer rating is one of the greatest indicators of success not just in football, but in all of North American sports.

But some folks don't appreciate passer rating's magical powers to separate winners from losers and champs from chumps.

ESPN is one of those groups. The worldwide leader is introducing its own version of passer rating Friday night, one that boldly purports to take into account every aspect of quarterbacking. "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion," boasts ESPN's NFC West reporter Mike Sando.

Except, you know, it won't.

Put most simply, you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation to victory of passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner.

Passer Rating: A Deadly Accurate Indicator of Team Success

In ESPN's defense, the purpose of its effort is to find a better way to measure the all-around game of an individual quarterback. And "Total Quarterback Rating" may one day prove a great indicator of an individual quarterback's own personal abilities. Existing passer rating, meanwhile, purports to tell us only one thing: which quarterback is the most efficient passer.

So we appreciate the effort to find new ways to measure a quarterback's abilities. But the Cold, Hard Football Facts will repel any attack upon the existing passer rating's incredible record of success.

In fact, we'll venture out into no man's land and guarantee ESPN and anyone else that the new Total Quarterback Rating will not "beat old passer rating" in one key area: it will NOT be more indicative of team success. And if a stat is not more indicative of team success, what good is it, really?

Great teams are almost ALWAYS those teams that dominate passer rating or one of its corollary " Quality Stats " we use at Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Defensive Passer Rating and Passer Rating Differential . We discussed the importance of each indicator earlier this year here on SI.com: Defensive Passer Rating here and Passer Rating Differential here (we called PRD "the most important stat in football").

2011 NFL Power Rankings: Top 10 MVP Candidates

Ndamukong Suh made an instant impact his first season, playing all 16 games and recording 10 sacks, claiming the 2010 Defensive Rookie of the Year award. He has the potential to become one of the most dominating DTs in the league, and will earn several trips to the Pro Bowl, along with multiple All-Pro accolades.

9. Chris Johnson

2010 stats: 16 GP, 1,364, 11 TD Matt Ryan ‘s first pass in the NFL was a 62-yard touchdown to Michael Jenkins; since then it has become apparent he is destined for great things. He was mentioned early as a potential MVP candidate but but a few sub-par performances during the last five games cost him consideration for the award. Now entering his fourth season Ryan will try to propel his way into the upper echelon of elite NFL QBs. He has the talent and the targets (Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner) to do it, and will once again be subject to MVP talk.